OBAMA AND RACE: THE LESSONS OF DINKINS AND BRADLEY

I lived in Manhattan in 1989 when David Dinkins ran to become the first African-American mayor of New York, challenging an entrenched but increasingly unpopular Ed Koch in the primary, then defeating  Rudy Giuliani in the general election.  In that race, Dinkins was far ahead in the polls but didn’t win by much.  Here’s how Adam Berinsky of The Monkey Cage describes it:

I
examined data from a 1989 New York City Mayoral election. There, the black
candidate David Dinkins held a fourteen- to eighteen-point advantage over his
white opponent Rudolph Giuliani in polls taken only days before the election,
but ended up winning the race by less than two percentage points. Correcting
the polls using statistical techniques that accounted for the “don’t know”
improved the predictive power of those polls. Clearly, some people who said
they didn’t know how they were going to vote in fact did know – they just
didn’t want to tell us.

The same thing happened earlier, in 1982, to one of LA’s most popular, and first black, mayors, Tom Bradley, when he ran for governor of California.  The gap between the polls and the electoral results was so large that the phenomenon was named "the Bradley effect."  Way ahead in polls right up to election day, Bradley lost decisively to George Deukmejian.

I’m so afraid that this presidential race may be tainted by some of the same behavior.  Of course I’m not covering new ground, just aggregating some good thoughts.  Listen to the work of the very wise Jill Miller Zimon at Writes Like She Talks, in which she quotes Tim Wise’s "This Is Your Nation on White Privilege."  The fact that that post generated some very heated comments speaks to the currency of this issue, right now.

Thanks to Ronni Bennett, at Time Goes By, I discovered this piece which she reposted today.  I’m going to link to the original, with a hit-tip to Ronni.  The blog is called Happening Here?, and the blogger Jan Adams.
In her post, she quotes another "awareness raiser" on the subject of
what is basically unconscious (or less conscious) racism.  Here’s a sample from her
citation of a letter to the editor in the Ft. Worth Star Telegram — itself quoted in Cafe Talk, part of Talking Points Memo.

You can see from the number of links in this post that this is not a
new topic.  But today, as I re-read these racism essays, looked at the
polls and remembered that Chuck Todd,
on MSNBC, responded to a question about the "bubba factor" with "Yes,
it’s real.  To counter it Obama has to go in with at least 48 points
because he’s not going to carry the undecideds." (That’s probably a
paraphrase but it’s what he said.)  — as I read and listened, I was
overtaken by a real sadness.  After the Democratic convention an
enormous number of Americans, more than a plurality, responded to
pollsters that the Obama nomination made them proud to be American. (anyone having this citation, please let me know.  I know that I read it, but not where.)  Clearly we all understood the historic importance of this candidacy. 

The question is, if we understand, will those who want to see that
historic landmark overtaken by an even larger one – that of the first
African-American (…half, anyway) President – whose values,
ideas, leadership ability, background, style, family and nature are so very attractive, prevail?
The splintering of that not-so-glass ceiling is a real possibility and
it is up to those who care to overtake the bubbas and the Bradley
effect and the Dinkins moment and the histories of Harvey Gant and
Douglas Wilder and all the others whose way was blocked by racial
attitudes and those who exploited them, to make sure that it happens.